Federal Funds Rate and 1-Year Treasury Rate and 10 Year Treasury Rate and 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rate

올해 연준이 금리를 0.25% 올리면 다른 금리들도 함께 상승합니다. 가령 연준이 금리를 1% 올리면 단기금리 대표인 1년짜리미국국채 는 0.9% 상승예상되고 장기금리 대표인 10년짜리 미국국채는 0.7% 상승 예상됩니다. 그리고 프라임(우대)금리는 0.88% 상승하게 예상됩니다.  연준의금리상승은 모게지금리상승으로 부동산시장에 부정적인 영향를 줍니다. 그래서 투자가 줄어듭니다. 그리고 프라임(우대)금리가 상승하면 Home Equity Line of Credit (HEOLC) 금리가 상승하면서 소비가 위축됩니다. 

The following chart illustrates the relationship between the Federal Fund Rate, 1-Year Treasury Rate, 10-Year Treasury Rate, and 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rate. If the Federal Reserve increases the Fed Fund Rate by 0.25%, then the other rates also would increase. For example, if the Federal Reserve raises the Fed Fund Rate by 1%, then 1-Year Treasury Rate (short term rate) would increase by 0.9%, the prime rate would increase by 0.88%, and 10-Year Treasury Rate (long term rate) would increase 0.7%. The 30-Year Mortgage Fixed Rate is tied to the 10-Year Treasury Rate. 

연준이 금리를 1% 올리면 단기금리인 1년짜리 미국국채금리는 0.9% 상승할것으로 예상됩니다.

The following chart shows the comparison between the 1-Year Treasury rate and Fed Fund Rate. The spread between the two rates is small, and the 1-Year Treasury rate is expected to rise by 0.9% if the Fed Fund Rate is increased by 1%.

연준이 금리를 1% 올리면 장기금리인 10년짜리 미국국채금리는 0.7% 상승할것으로 예상됩니다. 장기국채금리일수로 영향이 줄어듭니다. 미국의 30년모게지는 미국 10년국채하고 함께 움직입니다. 모게지 이자율이 상승하면 부동산시장이 그만큼 위축됩니다. 

The following chart shows the comparison between the 10-Year Treasury rate and Fed Fund Rate. The spread between the two rates is small, and the 10-Year Treasury rate is expected to rise by 0.7% if the Fed Fund Rate is increased by 1%. So, the impact on longer term would be less than on shorter term. The U.S. housing market will be contracted by increasing of mortgage rate so that U.S. residential investment will be reduced.

아래 차트는 연준금리와  프라임 (우대)금리 비교한것인데. 연준이 금리을 올리면 프라임(우대)금리는 0.88% 상승할것으로 예상됩니다. 보통 Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC) (두번째 주택담보) 의 이자율은 프라임(우대금리)에 +3%  정도입니다. 이자상승만큼 이자비용부담이 늘어납니다. 그만큼 소비가줄어들것으로 예상됩니다.

The following chart shows the comparison between the Fed Fund Rate and the Prime Rate(Red). The Prime rate is expected to rise by 0.88% if the Fed Fund Rate is increased by 1%. The Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC) is tied to the prime rate, and its rate is usually 3 % above the prime rate. The consumption will be reduced by increasing of Prime Rate.