여기 한국증시와 한국수출과의연관성을 보면 놀랄정도록 높습니다. 연관지수가(Correlation Coefficient) 0.93 으로 거의 절대적 관계성를 보여줍니다. 그런데 지난 2년동안 한국의증시는 한국의수출이 늘어나는것만큼 늘어나지 못하고있습니다. 저의분석으로는 1/2015 기준 10% 정도 저평가받고있습니다 . 그런데 현재 일본의엔저로 한국의수출은 계속 줄어들고있습니다. 물론 수입이 더줄어 한국의경상수지는 흑자입니다. 그래서 단기적으로 증시가 상승하더라도 수출이 늘어나지않으면 한국증시는 장기적으로는 지속적인 상승이 어려울수도있습니다.
The following chart
illustrates the very strong positive relationship between the Korean stock market and Korean exports. The two variables had been moving together since 2005, but in the last two years, they had
diverged, with the growth rates of Korean stock market being lower than the growth rates of Korean exports.
The correlation
coefficient of these two variables are very high (0.93), an
almost perfect correlation.
The simple regression
model estimates that the current Korean stock market is 10% undervalued as of 1/2015. Korean
exports have been shrinking due to fierce competition from Japan while Korean trading surplus has been increasing due to more decreasing of Korean imports than exports.
No comments:
Post a Comment