여기서 우리는 두가지를 예측할수있습니다.
- 하나는 오일가격이 $78 까지 상승할것이라는 예측입니다.
- 오일가격의 상승은 곧 소비자물가지수의 상승 곧 연준의 금리인상를 미리 예측할수있습니다.
The following chart exhibits the very strong relationship between oil prices and expected inflation rates (5-year Breakeven Inflation Rate). When the oil price declines, then the 5-year Breakeven Inflation Rate also declines as well and vice versa. When the price of oil declined sharply from $107 in July 2014 to $45 in January 2015, the 5-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate fell to 1.05% in January 2015. Recently, when the price of oil rose to $56, the 5-year Breakeven Inflation Rate rose higher to 1.6%. The last time the 5-year Breakeven Inflation Rate was 1.6% was last November 2014 and the price of oil was $78.7. The difference between last year's oil price and current oil price is approximately $20, and the reason why the 5-year inflation rate has been rising higher than the oil price is that some investors perceive the increase in oil price to be persistent or permanent. Two things we can expect from this:
1. the price of oil climbing back to $78
2. the increase of oil price would increase the inflation which would induce the Federal Reserve to raise the interest rate.