Government Debt to GDP ratio vs. Inflation rate

정부부채가 높으면 정부는 인플레이션으로 통해서 빚을 탕감하려고 하는 유혹이 강함니다. 이유는 정부부채를 낮추는 가장 손쉽게 이룰수 방법이기때문입니다. 하지만투자자들이 이사실을 알면 더높은 금리와 더욱 짧은기간의 정부채권을 요구하기때문에 실패하고 오히려 정부의부채를 더욱 악화시키게됩니다. 이방법이 성공하려면  정부는 투자자들로 하여금 기간이 길고 금리가 아주 낮은 정부채권에 투자하게 유도하고 인플레이션이 갑자스럽게 발생하게되면 정부부채는 감소하게됩니다.  하지만 이방법이 쉬운 방법이아닙니다. 현재 일본이 이방법으로 정부의부채를 낮추려고 합니다.

아래차트를 보면 정부부채가 높은 선진국들은 인플레이션이 아주낮습니다 (저성장).  인플레이션이 높은대부분의국가들은 대부분 이머징국가들이나 개발도상국가들입니다. 물론 대체로 이머징국가들의 정부부채는 선진국들보다 낮습니다 그리고 이머징국가들의 경제성장률이 선진국가들보다는 높습니다 그래서 인플레이션이 대체로 높습니다. 하지만같은 비율의정부부채가있는 선진국들의 인플레이션보다는 높습니다. 그이유는 이머징국가들의 경제주체는 인플레이션을 원하는 세력들이기 때문입니다. 그와반대로 선진국의경제의주체들은 인플레이션를 원치않기 때문입니다.  보통높은인플레이션은 중산층의 부가 기업이나 소수부자들에게 옮겨집니다. 그래서 선진국은 높은 인플레이션를 원치않습니다. 이와반대로 이머징국가 /개발도상국들의 경제주체인 기업들이 차입를 통해서 사업를 확장해왔기에 높은인플레이션를 원합니다.

Source: Trading Economics/Economic Reviews

There are several ways for the government to reduce its debt. One method to bring down the government debt is through either unexpected higher inflation or hyperinflation. Therefore, the countries with high government debt have a high incentive to reduce their debt by creating higher inflation rates because this method is easier to reduce the debt than other methods such as raising tax.  However, it would not work if investors expect higher inflation and then request higher interest rates on government securities and shorter terms such as 1 year or 3 years. So, this tactic would not succeed. Japan is trying to reduce its government debt by using this tactic, and its debt is the highest in the world.  The tactic would only work if the government induces the investors to invest in government bonds with longer term and lower rates. Then unexpected inflation occurs.

The following chart illustrates the relationship between inflation rates and Debt to GDP ratios among countries in the world. The inflation rates with high government debts are very low for advanced countries due to low GDP growth, but are high for some emerging countries and developing countries because the some emerging countries attempt to reduce the government debts by prompting the higher inflation rates.  

The business groups in emerging countries generally want higher inflation rates because they usually expand their business by heavily borrowing, but the advanced countries are usually against the higher inflation because they have had bad experiences with high inflation rates.  High inflation usually hurts middle income families (Creditors)and redistributes the wealth to higher income households or business(Debtors).